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Dexter Colin The Dead of Jericho
Winner of the CWA Silver Dagger Award, The Dead of Jericho is the fifth novel in Colin Dexter's Oxford-set Inspector Morse series. Morse switched on the gramophone to 'play', and sought to switch his mind away from all the terrestrial troubles. Sometimes, this way, he almost managed to forget. But not tonight... Anne Scott's address was scribbled on a crumpled note in the pocket of Morse's smartest suit. He turned the corner of Canal Street, Jericho, on the afternoon of Wednesday, 3rd October. He hadn't planned a second visit. But he was back later the same day - as the officer in charge of a suicide investigation...
3377 Руб.
Silver N. The Signal and the Noise
UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." -The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
967 Руб.
Silver N. The Signal and the Noise
UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." -The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
967 Руб.
Lore Pittacus The Power of Six
They caught Number One in Malaysia. Number Two in England. And Number Three in Kenya. They tried to catch Number Four in Ohio . . . and failed. I am Number Seven. And I'm ready to fight. I've seen him on the news. Followed the stories about what happened to John Smith. To the world he's a mystery, but to me . . . he's one of us. Nine of us came here, but sometimes I wonder if time has changed us, if we all still believe in our mission. There are six of us left. We're hiding, blending in, avoiding contact with one another, but our Legacies are developing, and soon we'll be ready to fight . . .
2344 Руб.
Balogh Mary Someone to Cherish
Is love worth the loss of one's freedom and independence? Mrs Tavernor has always firmly believed it is not. When Harry Westcott lost the title Earl of Riverdale after the discovery of his father's bigamy, he shipped off to fight in the Napoleonic Wars, where he was near-fatally wounded. After a harrowing recovery, the once cheery, light-hearted boy has become a reclusive, somber man. Though Harry insists he enjoys the solitude, he does wonder sometimes if he is lonely. Lydia Tavernor, recently widowed, dreams of taking a lover. Her marriage to Reverend Isaiah Tavernor was one of service and obedience, and she has secretly enjoyed her freedom since his death. She doesn't want to shackle herself to another man in marriage, but sometimes, she wonders if she is lonely.? Both are unwilling to face the truth until they find themselves alone together one night, and Lydia surprises even herself with a simple question: 'Are you ever lonely?' Harry's answer leads them down a path neither could ever have imagined . . .
2402 Руб.
Mayo Simon Mad Blood Stirring
1815: The war is over but for the inmates at Dartmoor Prison, peace - like home - is still a long way away. On the eve of the year 1815, the captured sailors of the Eagle arrive at Dartmoor prison; bedraggled, exhausted, sustained only by a rumour heard along the way. Joe Hill thought he’d left the conflict behind but it is clear there is a different type of battle here. As he announces the news of the end of the war, the guards bristle and the inmates stir. The powder keg was fixed to blow and Joe has just lit the fuse. Elizabeth Shortland, the Governor’s wife, looks out at the unsettled crowd. The peace means the end is near, that she needn’t be here for ever. But suddenly, she cannot bear the thought of leaving. Inspired by true events, Mad Blood Stirring is a story of hope and freedom, of loss and suffering. It is a story about how sometimes, in our darkest hour, it can be the most unlikely of things that see us through.
2346 Руб.
Kirn Walter Up in the Air
Ryan Bingham's job as a Career Transition Counselor-he fires people-has kept him airborne for years. Although he has come to despise his line of work, he has come to love the culture of what he calls "Airworld," finding contentment within pressurized cabins, anonymous hotel rooms, and a wardrobe of wrinkle-free slacks. With a letter of resignation sitting on his boss's desk, and the hope of a job with a mysterious consulting firm, Ryan Bingham is agonizingly close to his ultimate goal, his Holy Grail: one million frequent flier miles. But before he achieves this long-desired freedom, conditions begin to deteriorate. With perception, wit, and wisdom, Up in the Air combines brilliant social observation with an acute sense of the psychic costs of our rootless existence, and confirms Walter Kirn as one of the most savvy chroniclers of American life.
1101 Руб.
Surplice Holly Hush-A-Bye Bunny
A beautiful bedtime book for busy bunnies! It’s time for Bunny to go to bed, but he doesn’t want to leave his mummy and when he gets all tearful, Mummy Bunny knows just the rock-a-bye lullaby to comfort her little one. Hush-a-Bye Bunny is perfect for comforting sleepy little bunnies who don’t like being left alone when it’s time to turn out the light. A winning combination of adorable artwork, read-aloud rhyming text and a soothing bedtime story from talented artist and creator of the much-loved Guinea Pig Party, Holly Surplice. This eye-catching picture book with shimmering silver foil on the cover is sure to become a bedtime favourite.
1626 Руб.
Barnes Simon History of the World in 100 Animals
A powerful and fascinating insight into the 100 animals - from the blue whale to the mosquito - that have had the biggest influence on humanity through the ages. We are not alone. We are not alone on the planet. We are not alone in the countryside. We are not alone in cities. We are not alone in our homes. We are humans and we love the idea of our uniqueness. But the fact is that we humans are as much members of the animal kingdom as the cats and dogs we surround ourselves with, the cows and the fish we eat, and the bees who pollinate so many of our food-plants. In The History of the World in 100 Animals, award-winning author Simon Barnes selects the 100 animals who have had the greatest impact on humanity and on whom humanity has had the greatest effect. He shows how we have domesticated animals for food and for transport, and how animals powered agriculture, making civilisation possible. A species of flea came close to destroying human civilisation in Europe, while the slaughter of a species of bovines was used to create one civilisation and destroy another. He explains how pigeons made possible the biggest single breakthrough in the history of human thought. In short, he charts the close relationship between humans and animals, finding examples from around the planet that bring the story of life on earth vividly to life, with great insight and understanding. The heresy of human uniqueness has led us across the millennia along the path of destruction. This book, beautifully illustrated throughout, helps us to understand our place in the world better, so that we might do a better job of looking after it. That might save the polar bears, the modern emblem of impending loss and destruction. It might even save ourselves.
4934 Руб.
Hammer C. Trust
A stunning new novel from the author of the international bestseller No. 1 "Shrubs" and "masters of Australian noir" Chris Hammer.On a bright sunny day in Port Silver, former journalist Martin Scarsden misses a call from his girlfriend Mandy. Checking his voicemail later, all he hears is her startled scream before the phone goes dead.Returning to the house, he finds a policeman unconscious on the floor, and Mandy has left.So begins a fascinating story of intrigue and danger as Martin explores the hidden past of the woman he loves. But will he be able to trust her when her shocking secrets are finally revealed?
1076 Руб.
Hammer C. Trust
A stunning new novel from the author of the international bestseller No. 1 "Shrubs" and "masters of Australian noir" Chris Hammer.On a bright sunny day in Port Silver, former journalist Martin Scarsden misses a call from his girlfriend Mandy. Checking his voicemail later, all he hears is her startled scream before the phone goes dead.Returning to the house, he finds a policeman unconscious on the floor, and Mandy has left.So begins a fascinating story of intrigue and danger as Martin explores the hidden past of the woman he loves. But will he be able to trust her when her shocking secrets are finally revealed?
1076 Руб.
Chopra Deepak Reinventing the Body, Resurrecting The Soul
This important book picks up where Dr Deepak Chopra left off in his pioneering work Ageless Body, Timeless Mind. Having revealed the connection between our health and our thoughts, Dr Chopra shows us how to create a whole new self - the self we want to be - in this revolutionary sequel. Dr.Chopra explains how the body is a reflection of the mind, 'a symbol in flesh and blood of everything you think and feel'. From early childhood each one of us has invented our bodies and our personalities through our beliefs, conditioning and responses to everyday stress. But we have mostly done this unconsciously, which is why we may now feel unfulfilled. Reinventing the Body, Resurrecting the Soul will help us to reconnect with our ideal sense of self, guiding us one step at a time through a remarkable process of renewal and discovery. Chopra invites us all to live from the soul, to satisfy our deepest desires in a life rich with joy and meaning. 'You are inventing your body in every moment of life,' he reasons. 'Why not take control and reinvent it from the highest level?'
2430 Руб.
Wells Herbert George The Invisible Man
Herbert George Wells (1866 - 1946) was an English writer. He was prolific in many genres, writing dozens of novels, short stories, and works of social commentary, but he is now best remembered for his science fiction novels. "The Invisible Man" is a science fiction novella that tells a story of a mysterious man, Griffin, who arrives at the local inn of the English village of Aping during a snowstorm. He wears a long-sleeved, thick coat and gloves; his face is hidden entirely by bandages except for a fake pink nose; and he wears a wide-brimmed hat. He is excessively reclusive, irascible, and unfriendly. He demands to be left alone and spends most of his time in his rooms working with a set of chemicals and laboratory apparatus, only venturing out at night.
556 Руб.
Sacks Oliver The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat
Celebrating Fifty Years of Picador Books If a man has lost a leg or an eye, he knows he has lost a leg or an eye; but if he has lost a self - himself - he cannot know it, because he is no longer there to know it. In this extraordinary book, Dr. Oliver Sacks recounts the stories of patients struggling to adapt to often bizarre worlds of neurological disorder. Here are people who can no longer recognize everyday objects or those they love; who are stricken with violent tics or shout involuntary obscenities, and yet are gifted with unusually acute artistic or mathematical talents. If sometimes beyond our surface comprehension, these brilliant tales illuminate what it means to be human. A provocative exploration of the mysteries of the human mind, The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat is a million-copy bestseller by the twentieth century's greatest neurologist. Part of the Picador Collection, a series showcasing the best of modern literature.
2261 Руб.
Saunders George Civilwarland In Bad Decline
In his first collection, George Saunders' vision of our near future is as black and funny as you can get. He takes us on a trip to the shopping malls and theme parks and enviromental hazards that lie just around the chronological corner, introducing us to a gang of misfits and losers struggling to survive in an increasingly haywire world. Bizarre but familiar, fierce but always humane, these are stunningly original stories by a master of the form. 'Saunders is a morally passionate, serious writer, who perfectly expresses the madness of the times we live in. He will be read long after these times have passed' Zadie Smith 'He makes the all-but-impossible look effortless. We're lucky to have him' Jonathan Franzen 'There is no-one better, no-one more essential' Dave Eggers
2346 Руб.
Gotouge Koyoharu Demon Slayer. Kimetsu no Yaiba. Volume 5: to Hell
Tanjiro sets out on the path of the Demon Slayer to save his sister and avenge his family! In Taisho-era Japan, Tanjiro Kamado is a kindhearted boy who makes a living selling charcoal. But his peaceful life is shattered when a demon slaughters his entire family. His little sister Nezuko is the only survivor, but she has been transformed into a demon herself! Tanjiro sets out on a dangerous journey to find a way to return his sister to normal and destroy the demon who ruined his life. At Mt. Natagumo, Tanjiro, Zenitsu and Inosuke battle a terrible family of spider demons. Taking on such powerful enemies demands all the skill and luck Tanjiro has as he and his companions fight to rescue Nezuko from the spiders’ web. The battle is drawing in other Demon Slayers but not all of them will leave Mt. Natagumo alive…or in one piece!
1464 Руб.